WASCommanders
0-3
24
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
77°F
13 mph
14
OAKRaiders
1-2
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
77°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
4
7
7
18
Raiders
8
0
0
0
8
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
298
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
5.3
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.36
Passing Yards
217
194
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.48
Rushing Yards
122
104
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
14
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
31%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-1.77
-16.47
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-10
-33
Sack EPA
-2.51
-13.51
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-3.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-74
Home nfelo
1,389
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-72.6
Home QB Adjustment
-63.1
Away QB Adjustment
+9.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
M. Flynn
Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
-63.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
10
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
5
11
EPA
EPA / Play
28
26
EPA / Pass
22
32
EPA / Rush
11
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
20
31
Fumbles / Game
29
11
Turnover EPA / Game
7
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
28
4th Down Efficiency
29
6
RZ Efficiency
18
22
Raiders Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
30
Yards / Game
23
19
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
11
17
EPA
EPA / Play
24
24
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
16
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
14
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
5
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U