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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ raiders week 4, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
0-3
24
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
77°F
13 mph
14
OAKRaiders
1-2
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
77°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
4
7
7
18
Raiders
8
0
0
0
8

Spread

WAS logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
339
298
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
5.3
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.36
Passing Yards
217
194
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.48
Rushing Yards
122
104
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
15
14
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
31%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-1.77
-16.47
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-10
-33
Sack EPA
-2.51
-13.51
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-3.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-68
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-72.6
Home QB Adjustment
-63.1
Away QB Adjustment
+9.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Value
Ptile
11/18
10.8
97
11/22
6.1
87
12/03
5.5
84
12/09
1.2
58
12/23
-0.2
48
12/30
0.6
54
01/06
-3.0
30
09/09
0.1
50
09/15
4.4
81
09/22
2.0
64
M. Flynn headshot

M. Flynn

Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
-63.1
Value
Ptile
12/19
0.2
50
01/01
13.3
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Raiders Defense
Commanders logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
10
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
5
11

EPA

EPA / Play
28
26
EPA / Pass
22
32
EPA / Rush
11
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
20
31
Fumbles / Game
29
11
Turnover EPA / Game
7
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
28
4th Down Efficiency
29
6
RZ Efficiency
18
22
Raiders Offense vs Commanders Defense
Raiders logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
24
30
Yards / Game
23
19
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
11
17

EPA

EPA / Play
24
24
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
16
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
14
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
5
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
7
W
W
O
12/03
1
W
W
U
12/09
3
W
W
O
12/16
17
W
W
O
12/23
7
W
W
O
12/30
10
W
W
U
01/06
-10
L
L
U
09/09
-6
L
L
O
09/15
-18
L
L
O
09/22
-7
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
-21
L
L
U
11/25
-24
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
U
12/06
-13
L
L
U
12/16
15
W
W
U
12/23
-11
L
L
U
12/30
-3
L
W
O
09/08
-4
L
W
U
09/15
10
W
W
U
09/23
-16
L
P
O