WASCommanders
3-9
34
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
52°F
9 mph
13
OAKRaiders
4-8
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
52°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
10
0
17
34
Raiders
3
7
3
0
13
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
295
227
Total Plays
58
66
Yards / Play
5.1
3.4
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.18
Passing Yards
195
162
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.37
Rushing Yards
100
65
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
42%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+0.40
Sacks
3
8
Sack Yards
-27
-65
Sack EPA
-5.64
-13.51
Penalties
7
13
Penalty Yards
45
103
Penalty EPA
-1.31
-9.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,361
Away nfelo
1,437
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
+12.7
Market Regression
-32.8
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
B. Gradkowski
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
23
Yards / Game
22
25
Passing Yards / Game
14
15
Rushing Yards / Game
28
29
EPA
EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
18
27
EPA / Rush
23
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
3
Interceptions / Game
16
31
Fumbles / Game
4
23
Turnover EPA / Game
24
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
7
4th Down Efficiency
30
28
RZ Efficiency
8
10
Raiders Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
17
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
26
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
15
EPA
EPA / Play
29
20
EPA / Pass
30
25
EPA / Rush
22
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
5
Interceptions / Game
22
26
Fumbles / Game
32
16
Turnover EPA / Game
11
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
21
4th Down Efficiency
18
1
RZ Efficiency
29
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U