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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ rams week 3, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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WAS logo
WASCommanders
1-1
16
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
30
LARRams
0-2
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
13
3
0
16
Rams
14
0
7
9
30

Spread

LAR logo
+5

Total

OVER
39

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
349
365
Total Plays
50
75
Yards / Play
7.0
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.03
Passing Yards
233
232
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.14
Rushing Yards
116
133
Rush Attempts
17
37
Yards / Rush
6.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
15
24
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
10%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.69
-9.92
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-3
Sack EPA
-1.15
-1.67
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
65
99
Penalty EPA
-6.58
-15.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model63.7%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-50
Home nfelo
1,333
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.9
Home QB Adjustment
+12.6
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
+11.5
Final Difference
-97.5
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Value
Ptile
11/22
1.0
56
11/29
-0.2
48
12/06
0.1
49
12/13
2.6
66
12/20
2.8
68
12/27
4.1
76
01/03
-3.2
30
01/09
-3.7
26
09/12
-1.9
37
09/19
6.7
90
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Value
Ptile
09/12
-5.0
18
09/19
-2.8
30

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Rams Defense
Commanders logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
25
11
Yards / Game
17
18
Passing Yards / Game
4
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17

EPA

EPA / Play
28
5
EPA / Pass
25
7
EPA / Rush
19
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
9
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
20
12
Rams Offense vs Commanders Defense
Rams logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
27
31
Passing Yards / Game
16
31
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25

EPA

EPA / Play
30
12
EPA / Pass
26
26
EPA / Rush
29
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
5
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
1
10
Turnover EPA / Game
19
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
11
29
RZ Efficiency
31
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
10
W
W
O
11/22
-1
L
W
U
11/29
-3
L
W
O
12/06
-3
L
W
O
12/13
21
W
W
O
12/21
-33
L
L
O
12/27
-17
L
L
U
01/03
-3
L
P
O
09/12
6
W
W
U
09/19
-3
L
L
O
LAR logo

Rams

0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-5
L
W
O
11/22
-8
L
W
U
11/29
-10
L
L
O
12/06
-8
L
W
U
12/13
-40
L
L
O
12/20
-3
L
W
U
12/27
-21
L
L
U
01/03
-22
L
L
U
09/12
-4
L
L
U
09/19
-2
L
W
U