WASCommanders
1-1
16
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
030
LARRams
0-2
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
13
3
0
16
Rams
14
0
7
9
30
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
365
Total Plays
50
75
Yards / Play
7.0
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.03
Passing Yards
233
232
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.14
Rushing Yards
116
133
Rush Attempts
17
37
Yards / Rush
6.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
24
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
10%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.69
-9.92
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-3
Sack EPA
-1.15
-1.67
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
65
99
Penalty EPA
-6.58
-15.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,326
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.9
Home QB Adjustment
+12.6
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
-4.0
Final Difference
-113.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
11
Yards / Game
17
18
Passing Yards / Game
4
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17
EPA
EPA / Play
28
5
EPA / Pass
25
7
EPA / Rush
19
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
9
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
20
12
Rams Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
27
31
Passing Yards / Game
16
31
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25
EPA
EPA / Play
30
12
EPA / Pass
26
26
EPA / Rush
29
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
5
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
1
10
Turnover EPA / Game
19
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
11
29
RZ Efficiency
31
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Rams
0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U