WASCommanders
2-1
17
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
010
LARRams
0-3
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
7
3
0
17
Rams
0
0
0
10
10
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
172
Total Plays
69
67
Yards / Play
4.9
2.6
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.36
Passing Yards
--
127
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
20/43(47%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.0
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.34
Rushing Yards
196
45
Rush Attempts
40
17
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
18
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.84
-4.17
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-37
Sack EPA
--
-10.73
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
96
--
Penalty EPA
-10.22
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-33
Home nfelo
1,401
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.4
Home QB Adjustment
-10.5
Away QB Adjustment
-10.0
Market Regression
-43.2
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Grossman
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.0
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
16
21
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
27
31
EPA
EPA / Play
22
16
EPA / Pass
22
20
EPA / Rush
15
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
1
Interceptions / Game
29
23
Fumbles / Game
24
29
Turnover EPA / Game
6
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
18
4th Down Efficiency
29
29
RZ Efficiency
28
13
Rams Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
21
Yards / Game
31
12
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
23
17
EPA
EPA / Play
32
20
EPA / Pass
31
19
EPA / Rush
32
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
12
Interceptions / Game
3
22
Fumbles / Game
27
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
17
4th Down Efficiency
24
12
RZ Efficiency
31
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Rams
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U