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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ rams week 4, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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WAS logo
WASCommanders
2-1
17
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
10
LARRams
0-3
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
7
3
0
17
Rams
0
0
0
10
10

Spread

WAS logo
-3

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
339
172
Total Plays
69
67
Yards / Play
4.9
2.6
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.36
Passing Yards
--
127
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
20/43(47%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.0
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.34
Rushing Yards
196
45
Rush Attempts
40
17
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
18
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.84
-4.17
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-37
Sack EPA
--
-10.73
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
96
--
Penalty EPA
-10.22
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-33
Home nfelo
1,403
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.4
Home QB Adjustment
-10.5
Away QB Adjustment
-10.0
Market Regression
-43.2
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Grossman headshot

R. Grossman

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.0
Value
Ptile
11/25
-5.2
17
12/02
-2.3
35
12/06
-5.6
15
11/09
-0.6
47
12/19
-1.3
41
12/26
-4.6
20
01/02
2.4
65
09/11
1.7
64
09/18
-0.6
47
09/26
-1.8
37
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
Value
Ptile
11/21
3.7
74
11/28
4.3
78
12/05
-4.1
24
12/12
-4.1
23
12/19
-9.3
4
12/26
5.5
84
01/02
-8.3
6
09/11
-6.4
12
09/19
0.7
57
09/25
-6.1
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Rams Defense
Commanders logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
16
21
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
27
31

EPA

EPA / Play
22
16
EPA / Pass
22
20
EPA / Rush
15
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
1
Interceptions / Game
29
23
Fumbles / Game
24
29
Turnover EPA / Game
6
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
18
4th Down Efficiency
29
29
RZ Efficiency
28
13
Rams Offense vs Commanders Defense
Rams logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
32
21
Yards / Game
31
12
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
23
17

EPA

EPA / Play
32
20
EPA / Pass
31
19
EPA / Rush
32
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
12
Interceptions / Game
3
22
Fumbles / Game
27
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
17
4th Down Efficiency
24
12
RZ Efficiency
31
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
3
W
W
U
11/28
-4
L
L
U
12/05
-24
L
L
U
12/12
-1
L
P
U
12/19
-3
L
W
O
12/26
3
W
W
U
01/02
-3
L
W
U
09/11
14
W
W
O
09/18
1
W
L
U
09/26
-2
L
W
U
LAR logo

Rams

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-17
L
L
O
11/28
3
W
W
O
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
-18
L
L
U
12/19
-14
L
L
U
12/26
8
W
W
O
01/02
-10
L
L
U
09/11
-18
L
L
P
09/19
-12
L
L
O
09/25
-30
L
L
O