WASCommanders
2-2
16
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
62°F
16 mph
10
BALRavens
3-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
62°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
10
0
10
Ravens
7
3
0
0
10
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
310
306
Total Plays
62
69
Yards / Play
5.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.24
Passing Yards
250
188
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
30/47(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
4.0
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.30
Rushing Yards
60
118
Rush Attempts
20
19
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.36
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
25%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-3.33
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-22
Sack EPA
-3.13
-3.82
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
46
65
Penalty EPA
-5.21
-5.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+115
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
9
Yards / Game
3
7
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
20
5
EPA
EPA / Play
5
6
EPA / Pass
5
11
EPA / Rush
6
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
19
Interceptions / Game
14
1
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
15
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
2
4th Down Efficiency
14
25
RZ Efficiency
30
23
Ravens Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
18
Yards / Game
17
28
Passing Yards / Game
14
30
Rushing Yards / Game
28
24
EPA
EPA / Play
19
27
EPA / Pass
26
26
EPA / Rush
15
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
29
Interceptions / Game
21
18
Fumbles / Game
2
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
32
4th Down Efficiency
26
20
RZ Efficiency
19
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U