WASCommanders
5-5
23
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
010
HOUTexans
1-7
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
1
13
0
3
17
Texans
0
0
3
7
10
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
148
Total Plays
67
54
Yards / Play
5.1
2.7
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.39
Passing Yards
--
127
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.8
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.56
Rushing Yards
153
21
Rush Attempts
40
16
Yards / Rush
3.8
1.3
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
11
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
23%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.88
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-42
Sack EPA
--
-9.86
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
36
15
Penalty EPA
-3.52
-1.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,354
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+46.6
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
-7.1
Net QB Adjustment
-1.1
Home QB Adjustment
-19.5
Away QB Adjustment
-18.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-18.4
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-19.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
27
Yards / Game
20
30
Passing Yards / Game
16
17
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32
EPA
EPA / Play
22
12
EPA / Pass
25
13
EPA / Rush
21
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
18
Interceptions / Game
25
7
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
21
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
14
4th Down Efficiency
21
26
RZ Efficiency
23
19
Texans Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
8
Yards / Game
31
3
Passing Yards / Game
22
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
11
EPA
EPA / Play
31
8
EPA / Pass
31
8
EPA / Rush
31
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
8
Interceptions / Game
31
29
Fumbles / Game
20
29
Turnover EPA / Game
3
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
28
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
1-8-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U