WASCommanders
1-6
9
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
019
MINVikings
5-2
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
6
3
0
9
Vikings
3
10
3
3
19
Spread
+16.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
216
434
Total Plays
41
67
Yards / Play
5.3
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.01
Passing Yards
131
273
Comp/Att
15/21(71%)
23/26(88%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
10.5
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.24
Rushing Yards
85
161
Rush Attempts
16
38
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
29%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
7
15
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.26
-3.82
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-32
-12
Sack EPA
-12.16
-3.67
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
46
74
Penalty EPA
-12.06
-7.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-16.0
Current
-16.5
Model
-16.5
Win Probability
Market90.4%
Model90.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+396
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,305
Home Field
+79.4
Base HFA
+52.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.1
Time Adj
+9.3
Net QB Adjustment
+18.9
Home QB Adjustment
+14.6
Away QB Adjustment
-4.2
Market Regression
+11.7
Final Difference
389.6
Model Spread
-16.5
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
31
13
Passing Yards / Game
27
24
Rushing Yards / Game
23
17
EPA
EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
32
6
EPA / Rush
24
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
23
Interceptions / Game
19
3
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
11
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
19
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
27
2
Vikings Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
27
Yards / Game
19
27
Passing Yards / Game
32
23
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31
EPA
EPA / Play
10
29
EPA / Pass
9
27
EPA / Rush
12
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
7
13
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
30
RZ Efficiency
10
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U