WASCommanders
3-5
26
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
50°F
10 mph
29
MINVikings
3-5
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
50°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
7
10
6
26
Vikings
0
7
7
15
29
Spread
0
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
347
354
Total Plays
63
72
Yards / Play
5.5
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.13
Passing Yards
225
252
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.21
Rushing Yards
122
102
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
46%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.65
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-26
-16
Sack EPA
-5.43
-3.63
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
55
60
Penalty EPA
-6.13
-7.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
N/A
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model43.2%
Spread Pick
VikingsN/A
Expected Value
+5.9%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+91
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+25.3
Home QB Adjustment
+14.9
Away QB Adjustment
-10.4
Market Regression
+5.1
Final Difference
47.7
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.4
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
11
Yards / Game
13
14
Passing Yards / Game
9
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24
EPA
EPA / Play
23
14
EPA / Pass
25
18
EPA / Rush
18
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
5
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
32
27
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
20
4th Down Efficiency
32
31
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Vikings Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
29
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
26
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
12
EPA
EPA / Play
18
31
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
2
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
26
28
Fumbles / Game
1
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
24
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
13
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U