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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ vikings week 9, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
3-5
26
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
50°F
10 mph
29
MINVikings
3-5
MIN logo
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
50°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
7
10
6
26
Vikings
0
7
7
15
29

Spread

MIN logo
0

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
347
354
Total Plays
63
72
Yards / Play
5.5
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.13
Passing Yards
225
252
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.21
Rushing Yards
122
102
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
46%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.65
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-26
-16
Sack EPA
-5.43
-3.63
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
55
60
Penalty EPA
-6.13
-7.84

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
N/A
Model
+2.5

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model43.1%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
VikingsN/A
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.9%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+91
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,472
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+25.3
Home QB Adjustment
+14.9
Away QB Adjustment
-10.4
Market Regression
+5.3
Final Difference
47.9
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.4
Value
Ptile
10/20
7.6
91
10/27
-9.4
4
11/03
1.8
63
11/07
4.1
78
11/17
-2.2
37
11/25
-8.6
5
12/01
3.8
76
12/08
-7.5
10
09/07
1.0
57
09/14
-4.6
22
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
Value
Ptile
09/28
6.0
86
10/12
-13.6
0
10/19
-8.6
7
10/26
-1.2
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Commanders logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
26
11
Yards / Game
13
14
Passing Yards / Game
9
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24

EPA

EPA / Play
23
14
EPA / Pass
25
18
EPA / Rush
18
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
5
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
32
27
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
20
4th Down Efficiency
32
31
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Vikings Offense vs Commanders Defense
Vikings logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
20
29
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
26
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
12

EPA

EPA / Play
18
31
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
2
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
26
28
Fumbles / Game
1
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
24
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
13
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-1
L
W
U
12/29
-14
L
L
U
09/07
-11
L
L
U
09/14
31
W
W
O
09/21
-3
L
W
O
09/25
-31
L
L
O
10/06
-10
L
L
U
10/12
-10
L
L
O
10/19
2
W
L
U
10/27
3
W
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-28
L
L
O
12/29
1
W
W
U
09/07
28
W
W
U
09/14
-23
L
L
U
09/21
-11
L
L
U
09/28
13
W
W
O
10/02
-32
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
-1
L
W
U
10/26
6
W
W
U