WASCommanders
3-5
27
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
034
MINVikings
1-7
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
10
14
3
0
27
Vikings
7
7
14
6
34
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
433
307
Total Plays
77
52
Yards / Play
5.6
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.34
Passing Yards
242
216
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.34
Rushing Yards
191
91
Rush Attempts
36
24
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
22
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
56%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.68
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-39
-5
Sack EPA
-7.83
-1.43
Penalties
8
1
Penalty Yards
63
--
Penalty EPA
-8.88
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model46.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+63
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+7.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
-3.5
Final Difference
24.0
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
32
Yards / Game
10
31
Passing Yards / Game
19
32
Rushing Yards / Game
5
16
EPA
EPA / Play
28
29
EPA / Pass
22
29
EPA / Rush
11
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
20
25
Fumbles / Game
29
27
Turnover EPA / Game
7
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
29
25
RZ Efficiency
18
26
Vikings Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
30
Yards / Game
15
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17
EPA
EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
27
27
EPA / Rush
1
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
20
14
Fumbles / Game
29
11
Turnover EPA / Game
8
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
17
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U