DALCowboys
0-1
27
TBD
Candlestick Park
70°F
3 mph
24
SF49ers
1-0
TBD
Candlestick Park
70°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cowboys
0
7
7
10
3
27
49ers
0
14
7
3
0
24
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
472
206
Total Plays
66
54
Yards / Play
7.2
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.02
Passing Yards
427
132
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.10
Rushing Yards
45
74
Rush Attempts
22
24
Yards / Rush
2.0
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
14
Passing 1st downs
17
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.62
-4.07
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-5
-47
Sack EPA
-1.20
-8.56
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
83
25
Penalty EPA
-6.03
-2.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model52.5%
Spread Pick
49ers+3.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+23
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-17.7
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
2
Yards / Game
10
7
Passing Yards / Game
7
29
Rushing Yards / Game
17
1
EPA
EPA / Play
11
1
EPA / Pass
6
5
EPA / Rush
22
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
7
Interceptions / Game
7
2
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
24
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
11
RZ Efficiency
19
4
49ers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
15
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
17
Rushing Yards / Game
8
6
EPA
EPA / Play
12
17
EPA / Pass
14
18
EPA / Rush
17
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
14
Interceptions / Game
1
18
Fumbles / Game
8
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
22
4th Down Efficiency
3
8
RZ Efficiency
30
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U