DALCowboys
3-1
10
TBD
Levi's Stadium
78°F
10 mph
42
SF49ers
4-0
TBD
Levi's Stadium
78°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
7
3
0
10
49ers
7
14
7
14
42
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
197
421
Total Plays
49
67
Yards / Play
4.0
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.45
+0.18
Passing Yards
140
251
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
18/25(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
10.0
EPA / Pass
-0.52
+0.70
Rushing Yards
57
170
Rush Attempts
19
41
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.51
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
8
25
Passing 1st downs
5
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
36%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
NaN%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-18.80
-4.58
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-2
Sack EPA
-6.04
-1.02
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-6.27
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+145
Home nfelo
1,696
Away nfelo
1,631
Home Field
+73.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+15.4
Net QB Adjustment
+6.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.3
Away QB Adjustment
+5.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
110.2
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
15
17
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5
EPA
EPA / Play
2
18
EPA / Pass
3
8
EPA / Rush
7
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
27
Interceptions / Game
13
2
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
12
11
49ers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
9
Yards / Game
1
7
Passing Yards / Game
1
12
Rushing Yards / Game
4
18
EPA
EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
1
7
EPA / Rush
5
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
17
Interceptions / Game
12
11
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
20
RZ Efficiency
1
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U