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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ 49ers week 5, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
3-1
10
TBD
Levi's Stadium
78°F
10 mph
42
SF49ers
4-0
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
78°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
7
3
0
10
49ers
7
14
7
14
42

Spread

SF logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
197
421
Total Plays
49
67
Yards / Play
4.0
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.45
+0.18
Passing Yards
140
251
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
18/25(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
10.0
EPA / Pass
-0.52
+0.70
Rushing Yards
57
170
Rush Attempts
19
41
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.51
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
8
25
Passing 1st downs
5
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
36%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
NaN%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-18.80
-4.58
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-2
Sack EPA
-6.04
-1.02
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-6.27
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model66.3%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.0%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+149
Home nfelo
1,697
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+73.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+15.4
Net QB Adjustment
+6.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
117.4
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Value
Ptile
12/18
-0.3
50
12/24
6.2
90
12/29
0.9
58
01/08
-7.9
6
01/16
12.3
98
01/22
-2.0
38
09/10
-3.1
29
09/17
7.1
91
09/24
-1.1
42
10/01
3.5
73
B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
Value
Ptile
12/24
-1.1
45
01/01
0.7
57
01/08
-0.9
46
01/14
9.7
96
01/22
-0.3
50
01/29
-3.9
24
09/10
1.8
62
09/17
1.8
62
09/21
3.6
74
10/01
6.3
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cowboys logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
15
17
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5

EPA

EPA / Play
2
18
EPA / Pass
3
8
EPA / Rush
7
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
27
Interceptions / Game
13
2
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
12
11
49ers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
49ers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
2
9
Yards / Game
1
7
Passing Yards / Game
1
12
Rushing Yards / Game
4
18

EPA

EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
1
7
EPA / Rush
5
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
17
Interceptions / Game
12
11
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
20
RZ Efficiency
1
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-6
L
L
O
12/24
6
W
W
O
12/29
14
W
P
U
01/08
-20
L
L
U
01/16
17
W
W
U
01/22
-7
L
L
U
09/10
40
W
W
U
09/17
20
W
W
O
09/24
-12
L
L
O
10/01
35
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
17
W
W
O
01/01
3
W
L
O
01/08
25
W
W
O
01/14
18
W
W
O
01/22
7
W
W
U
01/29
-24
L
L
U
09/10
23
W
W
U
09/17
7
W
L
O
09/21
18
W
W
U
10/01
19
W
W
O