DALCowboys
13-5
12
TBD
Levi's Stadium
55°F
19 mph
19
SF49ers
14-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
55°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
6
3
3
12
49ers
3
6
0
10
19
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
282
312
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
4.7
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.08
Passing Yards
206
199
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.12
Rushing Yards
76
113
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.16
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
-0.76
-3.31
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
50
30
Penalty EPA
-6.09
-2.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,704
Away nfelo
1,621
Home Field
+71.8
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
+15.1
Net QB Adjustment
-70.1
Home QB Adjustment
-53.3
Away QB Adjustment
+16.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-53.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
1
Yards / Game
10
2
Passing Yards / Game
23
19
Rushing Yards / Game
9
2
EPA
EPA / Play
9
1
EPA / Pass
9
2
EPA / Rush
12
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
27
Interceptions / Game
30
2
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
13
4th Down Efficiency
5
16
RZ Efficiency
1
20
49ers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
6
Yards / Game
6
13
Passing Yards / Game
27
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22
EPA
EPA / Play
6
3
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
23
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
3
10
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
18
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
19
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U