DALCowboys
7-5
28
TBD
Soldier Field
8°F
14 mph
45
CHIBears
6-6
TBD
Soldier Field
8°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
7
0
14
28
Bears
7
17
11
10
45
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
492
Total Plays
55
70
Yards / Play
6.0
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.38
+0.53
Passing Yards
130
343
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
9.3
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.87
Rushing Yards
198
149
Rush Attempts
28
32
Yards / Rush
7.1
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.48
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
33
Passing 1st downs
11
19
Rushing 1st downs
13
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
50%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
100%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-7
Sack EPA
-3.20
-1.47
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+69
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.3
Home QB Adjustment
-17.8
Away QB Adjustment
-9.5
Market Regression
-5.0
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-17.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
17
29
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
32
EPA
EPA / Play
6
31
EPA / Pass
11
16
EPA / Rush
3
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
30
Interceptions / Game
9
7
Fumbles / Game
13
20
Turnover EPA / Game
25
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
25
4th Down Efficiency
5
30
RZ Efficiency
3
20
Bears Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
26
Yards / Game
7
32
Passing Yards / Game
7
25
Rushing Yards / Game
15
26
EPA
EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
6
24
EPA / Rush
8
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
12
16
Fumbles / Game
17
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
29
4th Down Efficiency
8
19
RZ Efficiency
7
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U