DALCowboys
6-6
24
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
9 mph
31
CHIBears
6-6
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
0
0
17
24
Bears
0
17
7
7
31
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
408
382
Total Plays
73
67
Yards / Play
5.6
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.12
Passing Yards
326
231
Comp/Att
27/49(55%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.20
Rushing Yards
82
151
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.53
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-8
-13
Sack EPA
-2.76
-3.15
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
52
--
Penalty EPA
-5.03
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-27
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+65.0
Base HFA
+48.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.7
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+24.3
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
4
Yards / Game
1
8
Passing Yards / Game
6
11
Rushing Yards / Game
4
9
EPA
EPA / Play
3
6
EPA / Pass
3
11
EPA / Rush
3
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
12
Interceptions / Game
14
25
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
6
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
16
11
Bears Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
9
Yards / Game
29
9
Passing Yards / Game
18
22
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10
EPA
EPA / Play
28
12
EPA / Pass
24
10
EPA / Rush
29
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
3
4th Down Efficiency
29
12
RZ Efficiency
24
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U