DALCowboys
6-6
20
TBD
Paycor Stadium
53°F
6 mph
19
CINBengals
7-5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
53°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
7
0
10
20
Bengals
10
3
6
0
19
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
336
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
4.1
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.05
Passing Yards
239
190
Comp/Att
25/43(58%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.13
Rushing Yards
49
146
Rush Attempts
24
20
Yards / Rush
2.0
7.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
58%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
11
4
3rd Down Attempts
19
11
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.23
-6.45
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-29
-16
Sack EPA
-2.93
-3.66
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
49
70
Penalty EPA
-4.92
-4.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.6
Home QB Adjustment
+13.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.3
Market Regression
+37.2
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
8
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
1
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
14
EPA
EPA / Play
13
4
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
24
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
7
Interceptions / Game
28
17
Fumbles / Game
19
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
10
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
20
5
Bengals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
24
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
22
16
Rushing Yards / Game
18
20
EPA
EPA / Play
17
25
EPA / Pass
23
28
EPA / Rush
8
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
15
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
18
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
23
4th Down Efficiency
3
22
RZ Efficiency
18
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U