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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ bills week 16, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
4-10
6
TBD
New Era Field
39°F
11 mph
16
BUFBills
6-8
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
39°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
3
0
0
6
Bills
6
0
3
7
16

Spread

BUF logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
307
408
Total Plays
56
61
Yards / Play
5.5
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
172
Comp/Att
13/31(42%)
13/18(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.6
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.34
Rushing Yards
121
236
Rush Attempts
25
40
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.73
-7.43
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-2.94
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
65
62
Penalty EPA
-6.01
-3.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model75.4%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+231
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+70.5
Base HFA
+59.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.7
Net QB Adjustment
+130.9
Home QB Adjustment
+15.3
Away QB Adjustment
-115.6
Market Regression
+4.6
Final Difference
195.1
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

K. Moore headshot

K. Moore

Proj. Value
-5.3
Team Elo Adj
-115.6
No recent game data available
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Value
Ptile
09/27
7.7
93
10/04
-0.0
51
10/11
1.3
61
11/08
0.4
52
11/12
-4.1
20
11/23
-3.2
28
11/29
8.6
95
12/06
6.2
88
12/13
0.6
54
12/20
1.9
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Bills Defense
Cowboys logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
31
15
Yards / Game
23
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
22
Rushing Yards / Game
8
16

EPA

EPA / Play
25
16
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
5
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
11
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
1
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
23
4th Down Efficiency
15
1
RZ Efficiency
29
17
Bills Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Bills logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
12
16
Yards / Game
13
16
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
1
22

EPA

EPA / Play
12
26
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
2
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
21
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
11
32
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
17
4th Down Efficiency
24
17
RZ Efficiency
26
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-24
L
L
U
10/25
-7
L
L
O
11/01
-1
L
W
U
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/15
-4
L
L
U
11/22
10
W
W
U
11/26
-19
L
L
O
12/07
3
W
W
U
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/19
-3
L
P
U
BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
1
W
W
U
10/18
-13
L
L
O
10/25
-3
L
L
O
11/08
16
W
W
O
11/12
5
W
W
U
11/23
-7
L
P
U
11/29
-8
L
L
O
12/06
9
W
W
O
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/20
-10
L
L
O