DALCowboys
4-10
6
TBD
New Era Field
39°F
11 mph
16
BUFBills
6-8
TBD
New Era Field
39°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
3
0
0
6
Bills
6
0
3
7
16
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
307
408
Total Plays
56
61
Yards / Play
5.5
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
172
Comp/Att
13/31(42%)
13/18(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.6
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.34
Rushing Yards
121
236
Rush Attempts
25
40
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.73
-7.43
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-2.94
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
65
62
Penalty EPA
-6.01
-3.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model74.8%
Spread Pick
Bills-6.5
Expected Value
+12.3%
Cover Probability
58.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+226
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+69.7
Base HFA
+59.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.6
Net QB Adjustment
+130.9
Home QB Adjustment
+15.3
Away QB Adjustment
-115.6
Market Regression
+3.2
Final Difference
189.0
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
K. Moore
Proj. Value
-5.3
Team Elo Adj
-115.6
No recent game data available
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
15
Yards / Game
23
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
22
Rushing Yards / Game
8
16
EPA
EPA / Play
25
16
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
5
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
11
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
1
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
23
4th Down Efficiency
15
1
RZ Efficiency
29
17
Bills Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
16
Yards / Game
13
16
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
1
22
EPA
EPA / Play
12
26
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
2
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
21
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
11
32
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
17
4th Down Efficiency
24
17
RZ Efficiency
26
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U