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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ broncos week 4, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
2-1
10
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
6 mph
17
DENBroncos
3-0
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
10
0
0
0
10
Broncos
0
7
0
10
17

Spread

DEN logo
+3

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
315
337
Total Plays
72
57
Yards / Play
4.4
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.02
Passing Yards
241
221
Comp/Att
25/42(60%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.14
Rushing Yards
74
116
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
21%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.15
-4.73
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-14
-22
Sack EPA
-7.95
-5.61
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
70
81
Penalty EPA
-8.42
-9.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model58.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-12
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-20.8
Home QB Adjustment
-13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-56.7
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Value
Ptile
11/16
-0.3
50
11/23
6.1
87
11/27
7.5
93
12/07
-5.6
12
12/14
2.0
66
12/20
-1.2
43
12/28
-4.1
21
09/13
8.5
93
09/20
-5.2
19
09/28
1.5
60
K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-13.3
Value
Ptile
11/16
-2.3
34
11/23
-1.5
40
11/30
-9.2
3
12/07
0.5
55
12/11
-3.5
25
12/22
-7.7
7
12/28
3.8
77
09/13
-0.0
49
09/20
2.2
65
09/27
0.6
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Broncos Defense
Cowboys logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
16
11
Yards / Game
2
7
Passing Yards / Game
2
4
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26

EPA

EPA / Play
10
12
EPA / Pass
7
6
EPA / Rush
9
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
14
Interceptions / Game
3
13
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
29
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
15
RZ Efficiency
17
14
Broncos Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Broncos logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
15
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
23
Rushing Yards / Game
18
4

EPA

EPA / Play
18
8
EPA / Pass
15
17
EPA / Rush
18
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
7
27
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
20
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
3
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
22
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
4
W
W
P
11/23
13
W
W
P
11/27
25
W
W
P
12/07
-7
L
L
P
12/14
12
W
W
P
12/20
-9
L
L
P
12/28
-38
L
L
P
09/13
13
W
W
O
09/20
-2
L
L
O
09/28
14
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
0-3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
4
W
W
P
11/23
-21
L
L
P
11/30
17
W
W
P
12/07
7
W
L
P
12/14
-20
L
L
P
12/21
-7
L
L
P
12/28
-31
L
L
P
09/13
5
W
W
U
09/20
21
W
W
U
09/27
20
W
W
U