DALCowboys
2-1
10
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
6 mph
17
DENBroncos
3-0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
10
0
0
0
10
Broncos
0
7
0
10
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
337
Total Plays
72
57
Yards / Play
4.4
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.02
Passing Yards
241
221
Comp/Att
25/42(60%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.14
Rushing Yards
74
116
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
21%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.15
-4.73
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-14
-22
Sack EPA
-7.95
-5.61
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
70
81
Penalty EPA
-8.42
-9.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model58.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-12
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-20.8
Home QB Adjustment
-13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-56.7
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
11
Yards / Game
2
7
Passing Yards / Game
2
4
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26
EPA
EPA / Play
10
12
EPA / Pass
7
6
EPA / Rush
9
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
14
Interceptions / Game
3
13
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
29
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
15
RZ Efficiency
17
14
Broncos Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
15
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
23
Rushing Yards / Game
18
4
EPA
EPA / Play
18
8
EPA / Pass
15
17
EPA / Rush
18
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
7
27
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
20
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
3
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
22
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
0-3-7
O/U