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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ browns week 9, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Weekly confidence pool picks
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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    Home Field Advantage for every team
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    Calculate EV for spreads
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DAL logo
DALCowboys
6-1
35
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
58°F
4 mph
10
CLEBrowns
0-8
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
58°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
14
14
0
35
Browns
3
7
0
0
10

Spread

DAL logo
-7

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
423
222
Total Plays
70
44
Yards / Play
6.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.17
Passing Yards
--
177
Comp/Att
22/28(79%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.84
-0.04
Rushing Yards
168
45
Rush Attempts
42
13
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
29
13
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
13
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
67%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-26
Sack EPA
--
-6.63
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
38
33
Penalty EPA
-4.62
-4.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model70.8%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-121
Home nfelo
1,366
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+88.5
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-34.9
Home QB Adjustment
-13.2
Away QB Adjustment
+21.7
Market Regression
+2.9
Final Difference
-153.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+21.7
Value
Ptile
09/11
-1.5
37
09/18
1.1
57
09/25
8.1
93
10/02
2.4
68
10/09
3.9
77
10/16
2.3
67
10/30
3.0
72
C. Kessler headshot

C. Kessler

Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-13.2
Value
Ptile
09/25
-3.0
27
10/02
-0.4
45
10/09
-3.3
25
10/16
0.5
53
10/23
-3.4
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Browns Defense
Cowboys logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
5
31
Passing Yards / Game
20
9
Rushing Yards / Game
2
30

EPA

EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
4
32
EPA / Rush
2
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
1
Interceptions / Game
4
22
Fumbles / Game
21
32
Turnover EPA / Game
24
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Browns Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Browns logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
31
8
Yards / Game
30
16
Passing Yards / Game
16
26
Rushing Yards / Game
18
1

EPA

EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
27
20
EPA / Rush
23
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
16
26
Fumbles / Game
27
14
Turnover EPA / Game
16
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
17
4th Down Efficiency
5
23
RZ Efficiency
15
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
-3
L
P
U
12/27
-10
L
L
U
01/03
-11
L
L
O
09/11
-1
L
L
U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
14
W
W
O
10/02
7
W
W
U
10/09
14
W
W
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/30
6
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-4
L
W
U
01/03
-16
L
L
U
09/11
-19
L
L
U
09/18
-5
L
L
O
09/25
-6
L
W
O
10/02
-11
L
L
O
10/09
-20
L
L
U
10/16
-2
L
W
O
10/23
-14
L
L
O
10/30
-3
L
L
O