DALCowboys
2-6
6
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
13 mph
10
TBBuccaneers
3-5
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
3
0
0
6
Buccaneers
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
216
330
Total Plays
53
67
Yards / Play
4.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.06
Passing Yards
174
246
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.12
Rushing Yards
42
84
Rush Attempts
21
26
Yards / Rush
2.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.33
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
23
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
31%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.36
-7.89
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-12
-18
Sack EPA
-4.35
-2.14
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
65
62
Penalty EPA
-8.08
-6.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model48.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,371
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+94.4
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
+11.1
Net QB Adjustment
+104.4
Home QB Adjustment
+13.7
Away QB Adjustment
-90.6
Market Regression
-4.0
Final Difference
11.3
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-90.6
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
26
Yards / Game
23
11
Passing Yards / Game
27
25
Rushing Yards / Game
8
9
EPA
EPA / Play
25
25
EPA / Pass
31
27
EPA / Rush
5
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
32
20
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
1
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
30
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
29
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
16
Yards / Game
4
16
Passing Yards / Game
24
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
22
EPA
EPA / Play
20
26
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
13
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
21
Interceptions / Game
20
30
Fumbles / Game
21
32
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
17
RZ Efficiency
23
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U