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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ buccaneers week 15, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
7-6
31
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
66°F
3 mph
15
TBBuccaneers
4-9
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
66°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
14
14
3
0
31
Buccaneers
0
0
9
0
9

Spread

DAL logo
-7.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
399
192
Total Plays
69
44
Yards / Play
5.8
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.19
Passing Yards
239
134
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.56
-0.14
Rushing Yards
160
58
Rush Attempts
37
13
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
28
7
Passing 1st downs
16
6
Rushing 1st downs
10
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
54%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.87
-4.59
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-16
Sack EPA
-6.72
-3.75
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
46
Penalty EPA
--
-4.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.9%
Cover Probability
60.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-63
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-23.6
Home QB Adjustment
-13.1
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
-13.2
Final Difference
-119.6
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Value
Ptile
10/02
4.5
79
10/16
2.4
69
10/23
-0.4
49
10/30
-4.9
19
11/06
5.5
84
11/13
9.8
96
11/20
2.5
69
11/24
-0.4
49
12/04
0.1
53
12/11
6.4
87
J. Freeman headshot

J. Freeman

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-13.1
Value
Ptile
09/25
0.1
52
10/03
5.4
83
10/09
-7.9
6
10/16
4.6
80
10/23
-5.2
17
11/06
5.4
83
11/13
-8.7
4
11/20
4.4
78
11/27
-3.7
27
12/11
-4.9
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Cowboys logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
32
Yards / Game
10
30
Passing Yards / Game
7
5
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32

EPA

EPA / Play
11
32
EPA / Pass
6
30
EPA / Rush
22
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
7
20
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
20
4th Down Efficiency
9
31
RZ Efficiency
19
25
Buccaneers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Buccaneers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
27
15
Yards / Game
21
14
Passing Yards / Game
14
17
Rushing Yards / Game
31
6

EPA

EPA / Play
27
17
EPA / Pass
24
18
EPA / Rush
29
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
29
18
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
1
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
22
4th Down Efficiency
18
8
RZ Efficiency
17
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-4
L
L
O
10/16
-4
L
W
U
10/23
27
W
W
U
10/30
-27
L
L
U
11/06
10
W
L
U
11/13
37
W
W
O
11/20
3
W
L
O
11/24
1
W
L
U
12/04
-6
L
L
U
12/11
-3
L
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
7
W
L
O
10/09
-45
L
L
O
10/16
6
W
W
U
10/23
-6
L
L
U
11/06
-11
L
L
U
11/13
-28
L
L
O
11/20
-9
L
W
O
11/27
-6
L
L
U
12/04
-19
L
L
O
12/11
-27
L
L
O