DALCowboys
12-5
31
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
58°F
2 mph
14
TBBuccaneers
8-9
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
58°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
6
12
6
7
31
Buccaneers
0
0
6
8
14
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
388
Total Plays
69
82
Yards / Play
6.2
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.05
Passing Yards
297
336
Comp/Att
25/33(76%)
35/68(51%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.72
-0.05
Rushing Yards
128
52
Rush Attempts
35
12
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
24
Passing 1st downs
16
20
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
54%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
7
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
18
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.65
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-17
Sack EPA
-2.23
-3.65
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
--
34
Penalty EPA
--
-1.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
Cowboys-2.5
Expected Value
+14.4%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-168
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,611
Home Field
+49.2
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+2.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-112.9
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
15
Yards / Game
10
10
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
9
15
EPA
EPA / Play
9
18
EPA / Pass
9
19
EPA / Rush
12
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
32
Interceptions / Game
30
27
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
1
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
6
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
11
15
Rushing Yards / Game
32
22
EPA
EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
11
4
EPA / Rush
32
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
29
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
24
1
Turnover EPA / Game
16
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U