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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ cardinals week 3, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
2-0
16
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
28
ARICardinals
0-2
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
7
3
3
16
Cardinals
9
12
0
7
28

Spread

ARI logo
+11

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
416
400
Total Plays
75
55
Yards / Play
5.5
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.30
Passing Yards
231
178
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
17/22(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.16
Rushing Yards
185
222
Rush Attempts
33
31
Yards / Rush
5.6
7.2
EPA / Rush
+0.25
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
26
20
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
12
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
56%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
20%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.91
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-11
Sack EPA
-2.76
-3.85
Penalties
13
8
Penalty Yards
107
69
Penalty EPA
-13.72
-9.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market82.5%
Model77.5%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+11.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.6%
Cover Probability
60.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-170
Home nfelo
1,418
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+66.3
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.2
Time Adj
+7.8
Net QB Adjustment
-26.6
Home QB Adjustment
-19.5
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
-4.4
Final Difference
-214.6
Model Spread
+8.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Value
Ptile
12/04
0.5
55
12/11
-0.2
51
12/18
-0.3
50
12/24
6.2
90
12/29
0.9
58
01/08
-7.9
6
01/16
12.3
98
01/22
-2.0
38
09/10
-3.1
29
09/17
7.1
91
R. Dobbs headshot

R. Dobbs

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-19.5
Value
Ptile
12/29
-2.4
33
01/07
-4.1
23
09/10
-5.1
19
09/17
7.3
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Cowboys logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
1
31
Yards / Game
4
25
Passing Yards / Game
15
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
32

EPA

EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
3
31
EPA / Rush
7
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
16
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
4
31
Turnover EPA / Game
17
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
32
4th Down Efficiency
15
8
RZ Efficiency
12
23
Cardinals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
24
9
Yards / Game
19
7
Passing Yards / Game
24
12
Rushing Yards / Game
3
18

EPA

EPA / Play
18
9
EPA / Pass
27
7
EPA / Rush
2
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
17
Interceptions / Game
15
11
Fumbles / Game
10
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
17
4th Down Efficiency
28
20
RZ Efficiency
5
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
35
W
W
O
12/11
4
W
L
O
12/18
-6
L
L
O
12/24
6
W
W
O
12/29
14
W
P
U
01/08
-20
L
L
U
01/16
17
W
W
U
01/22
-7
L
L
U
09/10
40
W
W
U
09/17
20
W
W
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
10
W
W
O
11/21
-28
L
L
O
11/27
-1
L
W
O
12/12
-14
L
L
U
12/18
-9
L
L
O
12/25
-3
L
W
U
01/01
-1
L
W
U
01/08
-25
L
L
O
09/10
-4
L
W
U
09/17
-3
L
W
O