nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ cardinals week 13, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DAL logo
DALCowboys
7-4
13
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
19
ARICardinals
4-7
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cowboys
0
10
3
0
0
13
Cardinals
3
0
3
7
6
19

Spread

ARI logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
336
327
Total Plays
67
55
Yards / Play
5.0
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.03
Passing Yards
261
224
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.14
Rushing Yards
75
103
Rush Attempts
20
25
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
5
Sack Yards
-38
-23
Sack EPA
-7.42
-5.84
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
49
--
Penalty EPA
-4.20
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model64.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-38
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.2
Home QB Adjustment
+10.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.5
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
-103.0
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.5
Value
Ptile
09/18
6.1
86
09/26
-1.8
37
10/02
4.5
79
10/16
2.4
69
10/23
-0.4
49
10/30
-4.9
19
11/06
5.5
84
11/13
9.8
96
11/20
2.5
69
11/24
-0.4
49
K. Kolb headshot

K. Kolb

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
Value
Ptile
10/17
7.9
93
10/24
-2.2
34
01/02
-12.6
1
09/11
4.3
78
09/18
-1.4
41
09/25
-3.2
30
10/02
-5.7
15
10/09
-9.0
3
10/23
1.7
63
10/30
-7.3
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Cowboys logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
15
16
Yards / Game
10
18
Passing Yards / Game
7
23
Rushing Yards / Game
17
21

EPA

EPA / Play
11
7
EPA / Pass
6
8
EPA / Rush
22
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
17
12
Turnover EPA / Game
24
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
1
4th Down Efficiency
9
23
RZ Efficiency
19
2
Cardinals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
24
15
Yards / Game
19
14
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6

EPA

EPA / Play
28
17
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
9
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
27
18
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
4
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
14
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
3
W
P
O
09/26
2
W
L
U
10/02
-4
L
L
O
10/16
-4
L
W
U
10/23
27
W
W
U
10/30
-27
L
L
U
11/06
10
W
L
U
11/13
37
W
W
O
11/20
3
W
L
O
11/24
1
W
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-1
L
W
U
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/02
-4
L
L
O
10/09
-24
L
L
U
10/23
-12
L
L
O
10/30
-3
L
W
O
11/06
6
W
W
U
11/13
4
W
W
U
11/20
-16
L
L
U
11/27
3
W
W
O