DALCowboys
7-4
13
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
019
ARICardinals
4-7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cowboys
0
10
3
0
0
13
Cardinals
3
0
3
7
6
19
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
336
327
Total Plays
67
55
Yards / Play
5.0
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.03
Passing Yards
261
224
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.14
Rushing Yards
75
103
Rush Attempts
20
25
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
5
Sack Yards
-38
-23
Sack EPA
-7.42
-5.84
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
49
--
Penalty EPA
-4.20
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model64.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-38
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.2
Home QB Adjustment
+10.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.5
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
-103.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.5
K. Kolb
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
16
Yards / Game
10
18
Passing Yards / Game
7
23
Rushing Yards / Game
17
21
EPA
EPA / Play
11
7
EPA / Pass
6
8
EPA / Rush
22
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
17
12
Turnover EPA / Game
24
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
1
4th Down Efficiency
9
23
RZ Efficiency
19
2
Cardinals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
15
Yards / Game
19
14
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6
EPA
EPA / Play
28
17
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
9
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
27
18
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
4
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
14
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U