DALCowboys
5-9
26
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
027
ARICardinals
4-10
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
10
10
6
26
Cardinals
2
7
0
6
15
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
271
Total Plays
76
47
Yards / Play
5.0
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.08
Passing Yards
199
178
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
11/25(44%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.08
Rushing Yards
183
93
Rush Attempts
34
21
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
10
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
44%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
100%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.04
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-27
-5
Sack EPA
-6.01
-0.55
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
49
43
Penalty EPA
-1.55
-5.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model66.7%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+7.0
Expected Value
+9.2%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,327
Away nfelo
1,550
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+51.8
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
-42.2
Market Regression
-8.0
Final Difference
-120.3
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Kitna
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-42.2
J. Skelton
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
30
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
21
27
Rushing Yards / Game
15
30
EPA
EPA / Play
18
14
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
8
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
2
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
13
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
21
RZ Efficiency
8
1
Cardinals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
31
Yards / Game
31
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11
EPA
EPA / Play
31
26
EPA / Pass
31
27
EPA / Rush
25
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
22
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
5
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
22
4th Down Efficiency
24
12
RZ Efficiency
29
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
10-0
O/U
Cardinals
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U