DALCowboys
2-1
21
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
80°F
7 mph
30
LACChargers
1-2
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
80°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
15
0
0
15
Chargers
7
6
7
10
30
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
506
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
5.7
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.11
Passing Yards
227
394
Comp/Att
27/37(73%)
35/42(83%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
9.4
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.24
Rushing Yards
92
112
Rush Attempts
16
27
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.43
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
27
Passing 1st downs
15
20
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
33%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.21
-9.09
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-19
-7
Sack EPA
-4.80
-1.12
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
33
85
Penalty EPA
-4.36
-6.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model47.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.8
Home QB Adjustment
+15.2
Away QB Adjustment
+12.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
16.4
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
9
Yards / Game
17
23
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
25
14
EPA
EPA / Play
6
30
EPA / Pass
11
22
EPA / Rush
3
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
9
24
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
25
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
5
15
RZ Efficiency
3
24
Chargers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
26
Yards / Game
8
32
Passing Yards / Game
2
25
Rushing Yards / Game
13
26
EPA
EPA / Play
2
25
EPA / Pass
2
24
EPA / Rush
10
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
7
5
Turnover EPA / Game
27
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
29
4th Down Efficiency
1
19
RZ Efficiency
21
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U