DALCowboys
2-2
26
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
40°F
5 mph
20
KCChiefs
0-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
40°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cowboys
0
3
7
10
6
26
Chiefs
0
10
3
7
0
20
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
498
304
Total Plays
61
74
Yards / Play
8.2
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.01
Passing Yards
348
232
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
10.2
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.58
+0.01
Rushing Yards
150
72
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
5.8
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
42%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.67
+4.63
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-3
-21
Sack EPA
-0.99
-4.50
Penalties
13
7
Penalty Yards
90
50
Penalty EPA
-11.43
-4.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-137
Home nfelo
1,332
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+31.9
Home QB Adjustment
+31.9
Away QB Adjustment
-0.0
Market Regression
+3.3
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+31.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
2
30
Passing Yards / Game
2
8
Rushing Yards / Game
6
30
EPA
EPA / Play
10
25
EPA / Pass
7
18
EPA / Rush
9
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
5
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
24
RZ Efficiency
17
22
Chiefs Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
20
23
Rushing Yards / Game
12
4
EPA
EPA / Play
26
8
EPA / Pass
26
17
EPA / Rush
26
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
17
8
RZ Efficiency
23
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Chiefs
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
2-1-7
O/U