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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ chiefs week 5, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DAL logo
DALCowboys
2-2
26
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
40°F
5 mph
20
KCChiefs
0-4
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
40°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cowboys
0
3
7
10
6
26
Chiefs
0
10
3
7
0
20

Spread

KC logo
+7

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
498
304
Total Plays
61
74
Yards / Play
8.2
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.01
Passing Yards
348
232
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
10.2
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.58
+0.01
Rushing Yards
150
72
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
5.8
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
42%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.67
+4.63
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-3
-21
Sack EPA
-0.99
-4.50
Penalties
13
7
Penalty Yards
90
50
Penalty EPA
-11.43
-4.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-137
Home nfelo
1,332
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+31.9
Home QB Adjustment
+31.9
Away QB Adjustment
-0.0
Market Regression
+3.2
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Value
Ptile
11/23
6.1
87
11/27
7.5
93
12/07
-5.6
12
12/14
2.0
66
12/20
-1.2
43
12/28
-4.1
21
09/13
8.5
93
09/20
-5.2
19
09/28
1.5
60
10/04
-4.6
22
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+31.9
Value
Ptile
11/13
11.3
98
11/23
12.0
99
11/30
-10.3
2
12/07
-0.5
49
12/14
3.0
71
12/21
7.4
92
12/28
-2.6
30
09/20
-0.1
48
09/27
-0.4
47
10/04
-3.5
27

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Cowboys logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
2
30
Passing Yards / Game
2
8
Rushing Yards / Game
6
30

EPA

EPA / Play
10
25
EPA / Pass
7
18
EPA / Rush
9
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
5
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
24
RZ Efficiency
17
22
Chiefs Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Chiefs logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
20
23
Rushing Yards / Game
12
4

EPA

EPA / Play
26
8
EPA / Pass
26
17
EPA / Rush
26
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
17
8
RZ Efficiency
23
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
13
W
W
P
11/27
25
W
W
P
12/07
-7
L
L
P
12/14
12
W
W
P
12/20
-9
L
L
P
12/28
-38
L
L
P
09/13
13
W
W
O
09/20
-2
L
L
O
09/28
14
W
W
U
10/04
-7
L
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-23
L
L
P
11/30
7
W
W
P
12/07
-7
L
W
P
12/14
-1
L
W
P
12/21
-7
L
L
P
12/28
-10
L
L
P
09/13
-14
L
L
O
09/20
-3
L
L
U
09/27
-20
L
L
O
10/04
-11
L
L
P