DALCowboys
3-8
38
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
035
INDColts
6-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cowboys
10
1
4
8
3
26
Colts
0
7
7
15
0
29
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
370
405
Total Plays
75
65
Yards / Play
4.9
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.06
Passing Yards
153
--
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
36/48(75%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.02
Rushing Yards
217
40
Rush Attempts
46
17
Yards / Rush
4.7
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
11
20
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
53%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-19.96
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-3.37
--
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
35
28
Penalty EPA
-2.33
-5.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+58.0
Home QB Adjustment
-5.1
Away QB Adjustment
-63.1
Market Regression
+17.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Kitna
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-63.1
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
23
Yards / Game
8
20
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
15
27
EPA
EPA / Play
18
29
EPA / Pass
15
21
EPA / Rush
8
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
31
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
13
21
Turnover EPA / Game
8
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
23
4th Down Efficiency
9
12
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Colts Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
31
Yards / Game
6
23
Passing Yards / Game
8
19
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11
EPA
EPA / Play
3
26
EPA / Pass
4
27
EPA / Rush
13
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
22
Interceptions / Game
16
6
Fumbles / Game
7
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
22
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
1
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
9-1
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U