DALCowboys
0-1
27
TBD
FedExField
81°F
6 mph
23
WASCommanders
0-1
TBD
FedExField
81°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
10
3
7
7
27
Commanders
0
10
13
0
23
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
380
432
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
5.9
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.07
Passing Yards
278
350
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
28/46(61%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.53
+0.09
Rushing Yards
102
82
Rush Attempts
30
17
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.30
-4.76
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-14
-14
Sack EPA
-5.01
-2.18
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
39
51
Penalty EPA
-6.99
-7.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,489
Home Field
+62.3
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+34.4
Home QB Adjustment
+13.9
Away QB Adjustment
-20.4
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-20.4
Value
Ptile
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
5
28
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
2
24
EPA
EPA / Play
4
27
EPA / Pass
4
26
EPA / Rush
2
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
29
Interceptions / Game
4
18
Fumbles / Game
21
20
Turnover EPA / Game
24
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
12
26
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1
EPA
EPA / Play
5
15
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
6
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
24
Interceptions / Game
14
26
Fumbles / Game
16
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
30
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U