DALCowboys
5-4
27
TBD
FedExField
62°F
4 mph
24
WASCommanders
3-6
TBD
FedExField
62°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cowboys
7
3
0
14
3
27
Commanders
0
14
3
7
0
24
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
353
339
Total Plays
73
65
Yards / Play
4.8
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.06
Passing Yards
264
279
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.14
Rushing Yards
89
60
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
47%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.31
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-28
-13
Sack EPA
-5.70
-4.99
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
48
59
Penalty EPA
-5.41
-6.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model69.6%
Spread Pick
Commanders+7.0
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-111
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-34.5
Home QB Adjustment
-20.9
Away QB Adjustment
+13.7
Market Regression
+16.9
Final Difference
-144.3
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
R. Grossman
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-20.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
10
12
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
17
17
EPA
EPA / Play
11
20
EPA / Pass
6
19
EPA / Rush
22
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
12
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
17
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
17
4th Down Efficiency
9
12
RZ Efficiency
19
6
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
16
14
Passing Yards / Game
8
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6
EPA
EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
22
18
EPA / Rush
15
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
14
Interceptions / Game
29
18
Fumbles / Game
24
12
Turnover EPA / Game
6
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
28
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U