DALCowboys
9-5
17
TBD
FedExField
37°F
8 mph
0
WASCommanders
4-10
TBD
FedExField
37°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
7
0
3
17
Commanders
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
393
218
Total Plays
69
60
Yards / Play
5.7
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.26
Passing Yards
285
175
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.29
Rushing Yards
108
43
Rush Attempts
30
18
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
54%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.75
-4.56
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-1
-24
Sack EPA
-0.70
-3.73
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
21
33
Penalty EPA
-3.55
-5.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-133
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.5
Home QB Adjustment
+3.5
Away QB Adjustment
+22.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+22.0
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
17
Yards / Game
2
11
Passing Yards / Game
2
27
Rushing Yards / Game
6
15
EPA
EPA / Play
10
20
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
9
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
5
Interceptions / Game
3
26
Fumbles / Game
12
16
Turnover EPA / Game
29
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
21
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
17
1
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
3
Yards / Game
22
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
23
Rushing Yards / Game
28
4
EPA
EPA / Play
21
8
EPA / Pass
18
17
EPA / Rush
23
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
16
27
Fumbles / Game
4
5
Turnover EPA / Game
24
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
3
4th Down Efficiency
30
8
RZ Efficiency
8
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U