DALCowboys
7-7
24
TBD
FedExField
65°F
5 mph
23
WASCommanders
3-11
TBD
FedExField
65°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
7
0
10
24
Commanders
3
3
14
3
23
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
297
Total Plays
52
64
Yards / Play
5.9
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.03
Passing Yards
214
--
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.04
Rushing Yards
95
100
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.08
-2.64
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-3.14
--
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
42
44
Penalty EPA
-6.90
-0.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-41
Home nfelo
1,410
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-36.7
Home QB Adjustment
-48.1
Away QB Adjustment
-11.4
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-48.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
17
19
Passing Yards / Game
17
26
Rushing Yards / Game
25
17
EPA
EPA / Play
6
24
EPA / Pass
11
27
EPA / Rush
3
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
14
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
25
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
29
RZ Efficiency
3
29
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
26
Yards / Game
10
32
Passing Yards / Game
19
25
Rushing Yards / Game
5
26
EPA
EPA / Play
28
25
EPA / Pass
22
24
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
26
Interceptions / Game
20
16
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
29
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
18
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U