nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ commanders week 17, 2002

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DAL logo
DALCowboys
5-10
14
TBD
FedExField
46°F
13 mph
20
WASCommanders
6-9
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
46°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
1
0
7
8
Commanders
0
7
4
3
14

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
186
352
Total Plays
50
69
Yards / Play
3.7
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.50
-0.29
Passing Yards
148
201
Comp/Att
12/23(52%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.54
-0.45
Rushing Yards
38
151
Rush Attempts
22
37
Yards / Rush
1.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.49
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
8
18
Passing 1st downs
5
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
8%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
1
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
4
5
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
3
3
Turnover EPA
-15.91
-24.84
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-41
-8
Sack EPA
-10.72
-4.78
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
86
59
Penalty EPA
-6.41
-5.51

Preview data is limited for games before 2009

Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
31
19
Yards / Game
30
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
16
Rushing Yards / Game
18
12

EPA

EPA / Play
30
6
EPA / Pass
31
6
EPA / Rush
26
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
27
9
Turnover EPA / Game
2
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
3
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
25
10
Yards / Game
21
17
Passing Yards / Game
18
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
16

EPA

EPA / Play
26
5
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
17
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
23
9
Fumbles / Game
25
21
Turnover EPA / Game
3
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
17
32
RZ Efficiency
6
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
1
W
L
P
10/20
-3
L
W
P
10/27
-3
L
L
P
11/03
-2
L
W
P
11/17
-17
L
L
P
11/24
2
W
W
P
11/28
7
W
W
P
12/08
-4
L
W
P
12/15
-30
L
L
P
12/21
-24
L
L
P
WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
-21
L
L
P
10/27
5
W
W
P
11/03
11
W
W
P
11/10
-19
L
L
P
11/17
-2
L
W
P
11/24
3
W
W
P
11/28
-7
L
L
P
12/08
-6
L
L
P
12/15
-13
L
L
P
12/22
16
W
W
P