nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ commanders week 17, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DAL logo
DALCowboys
6-8
30
TBD
FedExField
50°F
7 mph
23
WASCommanders
4-11
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
50°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
17
3
3
30
Commanders
3
7
10
3
23

Spread

WAS logo
+8.5

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
480
328
Total Plays
87
41
Yards / Play
5.5
8.0
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.30
Passing Yards
269
190
Comp/Att
19/37(51%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.15
Rushing Yards
211
138
Rush Attempts
44
16
Yards / Rush
4.8
8.6
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
28
17
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
40%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
20
6
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-38
-8
Sack EPA
-4.12
-2.56
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
89
71
Penalty EPA
-10.36
-9.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market77.4%
Model71.2%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+8.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.7%
Cover Probability
61.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-113
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+47.9
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
-125.9
Home QB Adjustment
-108.3
Away QB Adjustment
+17.6
Market Regression
-16.3
Final Difference
-157.6
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
Value
Ptile
10/12
6.9
92
10/19
5.0
84
10/26
-4.3
22
11/03
-3.9
24
11/17
6.7
91
11/23
6.6
91
11/27
4.3
78
12/04
-2.1
36
12/14
0.3
53
12/21
5.9
88
J. Johnson headshot

J. Johnson

Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-108.3
Value
Ptile
10/04
-3.3
29
10/11
-2.7
34
10/18
-4.5
22
10/25
-8.4
6
12/04
0.8
57
12/16
-0.7
42
12/22
-5.5
16
12/30
-13.5
1
12/26
2.9
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
1
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
31

EPA

EPA / Play
1
31
EPA / Pass
5
32
EPA / Rush
16
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
15
Interceptions / Game
16
27
Fumbles / Game
23
29
Turnover EPA / Game
20
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
23
4th Down Efficiency
8
27
RZ Efficiency
17
29
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
25
32
Yards / Game
21
30
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20

EPA

EPA / Play
17
32
EPA / Pass
22
30
EPA / Rush
7
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
22
Interceptions / Game
16
29
Fumbles / Game
23
28
Turnover EPA / Game
6
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
7
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
-3
L
L
O
10/19
22
W
W
O
10/26
-20
L
L
O
11/03
-10
L
L
U
11/17
17
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
W
U
11/27
3
W
W
O
12/04
-14
L
L
O
12/14
-8
L
L
O
12/21
-17
L
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
-1
L
L
U
10/19
-22
L
L
O
10/27
-21
L
L
U
11/02
-24
L
L
O
11/09
-22
L
L
O
11/16
-3
L
L
U
11/30
-1
L
W
O
12/07
-31
L
L
U
12/14
8
W
W
O
12/20
-11
L
L
O