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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ commanders week 18, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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DAL logo
DALCowboys
12-4
6
TBD
FedExField
42°F
7 mph
26
WASCommanders
7-8
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
42°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
6
0
0
6
Commanders
7
0
7
6
20

Spread

WAS logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
182
309
Total Plays
66
63
Yards / Play
2.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.56
-0.21
Passing Yards
118
158
Comp/Att
14/38(37%)
11/19(58%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.38
-0.39
Rushing Yards
64
151
Rush Attempts
27
41
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.64
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
10
16
Passing 1st downs
6
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
22%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.66
-0.75
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-11
Sack EPA
-2.15
-3.89
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
74
--
Penalty EPA
-7.73
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
+4.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model78.9%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys-7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.8%
Cover Probability
57.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-264
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,651
Home Field
+30.2
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-78.5
Home QB Adjustment
-63.3
Away QB Adjustment
+15.1
Market Regression
-345.1
Final Difference
-229.1
Model Spread
+9.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
Value
Ptile
10/23
-1.6
41
10/30
7.4
92
11/13
-0.0
52
11/20
7.9
93
11/24
1.5
63
12/04
0.5
55
12/11
-0.2
51
12/18
-0.3
50
12/24
6.2
90
12/29
0.9
58
S. Howell headshot

S. Howell

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-63.3
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
10
3
Passing Yards / Game
23
10
Rushing Yards / Game
9
11

EPA

EPA / Play
9
8
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
12
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
8
Interceptions / Game
30
29
Fumbles / Game
3
29
Turnover EPA / Game
20
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
1
4th Down Efficiency
5
14
RZ Efficiency
1
9
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
24
6
Yards / Game
20
13
Passing Yards / Game
16
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
22

EPA

EPA / Play
22
3
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
21
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
29
Interceptions / Game
25
10
Fumbles / Game
20
1
Turnover EPA / Game
21
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
18
4th Down Efficiency
21
17
RZ Efficiency
23
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
18
W
W
U
10/30
20
W
W
O
11/13
-3
L
L
O
11/20
37
W
W
U
11/24
8
W
L
O
12/04
35
W
W
O
12/11
4
W
L
O
12/18
-6
L
L
O
12/24
6
W
W
O
12/29
14
W
P
U
WAS logo

Commanders

5-4-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
2
W
W
O
10/30
1
W
W
U
11/06
-3
L
P
U
11/14
11
W
W
O
11/20
13
W
W
U
11/27
6
W
W
U
12/04
0
T
L
P
12/18
-8
L
L
U
12/24
-17
L
L
O
01/01
-14
L
L
U