DALCowboys
5-2
20
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
61°F
1 mph
16
PHIEagles
5-2
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
61°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
3
0
10
20
Eagles
0
6
7
3
16
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
358
297
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
5.9
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.02
Passing Yards
282
208
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.06
Rushing Yards
76
89
Rush Attempts
23
23
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.77
-7.44
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-25
-19
Sack EPA
-5.40
-5.73
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
70
82
Penalty EPA
-7.11
-1.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model57.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,617
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-21.3
Home QB Adjustment
-4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+17.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
54.8
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
19
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
2
32
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12
EPA
EPA / Play
10
9
EPA / Pass
7
9
EPA / Rush
9
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
10
Interceptions / Game
3
4
Fumbles / Game
12
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
4
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
17
25
Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
3
Yards / Game
11
10
Passing Yards / Game
5
23
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4
EPA
EPA / Play
14
8
EPA / Pass
12
17
EPA / Rush
10
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
13
Interceptions / Game
8
27
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
3
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
27
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-2-3
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-1-3
O/U