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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ eagles week 17, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
7-8
7
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
10 mph
41
PHIEagles
12-3
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
0
0
0
7
Eagles
1
17
10
7
35

Spread

PHI logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
268
376
Total Plays
60
61
Yards / Play
4.5
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.30
Passing Yards
141
--
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
13/19(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.48
+0.75
Rushing Yards
127
179
Rush Attempts
30
42
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
7
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
43%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-20.82
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-2.73
--
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
69
25
Penalty EPA
-11.19
-4.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+160
Home nfelo
1,649
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+41.8
Base HFA
+38.8
Divisional Adj
-17.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-32.5
Home QB Adjustment
-88.5
Away QB Adjustment
-56.0
Market Regression
-26.9
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

C. Rush headshot

C. Rush

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-56.0
Value
Ptile
10/02
0.2
54
10/09
-6.8
10
10/16
-7.6
7
11/10
-6.8
9
11/18
-2.7
30
11/24
3.3
71
11/28
-1.2
40
12/09
-6.0
12
12/15
2.5
66
12/22
2.0
63
K. Pickett headshot

K. Pickett

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-88.5
Value
Ptile
09/24
0.7
54
10/01
-7.1
10
10/08
-2.8
30
10/22
0.1
50
10/29
-5.2
18
11/02
-0.2
47
11/12
-2.9
29
11/19
-5.3
18
11/26
1.1
56
12/03
-4.7
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
21
1
Yards / Game
16
1
Passing Yards / Game
6
14
Rushing Yards / Game
27
4

EPA

EPA / Play
25
1
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
30
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
12
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
32
1
Turnover EPA / Game
5
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
8
4th Down Efficiency
32
21
RZ Efficiency
31
6
Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
5
31
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
25
19
Rushing Yards / Game
2
29

EPA

EPA / Play
7
27
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
4
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
19
Interceptions / Game
3
13
Fumbles / Game
8
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
9
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
10
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
-38
L
L
O
10/27
-6
L
L
O
11/03
-6
L
L
U
11/10
-28
L
L
U
11/18
-24
L
L
O
11/24
8
W
W
O
11/28
7
W
W
O
12/09
-7
L
L
U
12/15
16
W
W
O
12/22
2
W
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
25
W
W
U
10/27
20
W
W
O
11/03
5
W
L
O
11/10
28
W
W
U
11/14
8
W
W
U
11/24
17
W
W
O
12/01
5
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
L
U
12/15
14
W
W
U
12/22
-3
L
L
O