DALCowboys
3-4
21
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
027
ATLFalcons
5-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
7
3
8
21
Falcons
7
7
7
6
27
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
380
310
Total Plays
75
57
Yards / Play
5.1
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.02
Passing Yards
243
210
Comp/Att
31/51(61%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.30
Rushing Yards
137
100
Rush Attempts
21
30
Yards / Rush
6.5
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
23%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.42
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-7
-12
Sack EPA
-3.38
-5.60
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
--
26
Penalty EPA
--
-5.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+77
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+50.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+32.6
Home QB Adjustment
+18.3
Away QB Adjustment
-14.3
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-14.3
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
23
Yards / Game
16
22
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
27
15
EPA
EPA / Play
25
23
EPA / Pass
29
28
EPA / Rush
30
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
25
Interceptions / Game
21
16
Fumbles / Game
32
27
Turnover EPA / Game
5
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
31
4th Down Efficiency
32
13
RZ Efficiency
31
28
Falcons Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
31
Yards / Game
6
28
Passing Yards / Game
7
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
29
EPA
EPA / Play
15
27
EPA / Pass
15
15
EPA / Rush
11
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
19
Interceptions / Game
29
13
Fumbles / Game
6
11
Turnover EPA / Game
8
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
27
RZ Efficiency
20
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U