DALCowboys
5-3
7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
027
ATLFalcons
4-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
0
0
0
7
Falcons
3
7
7
10
27
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
233
336
Total Plays
59
64
Yards / Play
3.9
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.09
Passing Yards
126
204
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.36
Rushing Yards
107
132
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
45%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-6.39
-3.88
Sacks
8
1
Sack Yards
-50
-11
Sack EPA
-18.67
-2.03
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
54
35
Penalty EPA
-7.41
-2.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+46.1
Base HFA
+56.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-27.8
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+22.8
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
14
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
20
Rushing Yards / Game
2
9
EPA
EPA / Play
10
21
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
1
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
26
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
29
RZ Efficiency
7
2
Falcons Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
9
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
14
8
EPA
EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
20
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
22
Interceptions / Game
8
25
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
27
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
29
4th Down Efficiency
24
6
RZ Efficiency
26
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U