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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ giants week 9, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
4-3
37
TBD
MetLife Stadium
51°F
10 mph
18
NYGGiants
2-6
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
51°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
10
3
15
31
Giants
3
9
3
3
18

Spread

DAL logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
429
271
Total Plays
65
68
Yards / Play
6.6
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.24
Passing Yards
--
171
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.32
Rushing Yards
172
100
Rush Attempts
30
22
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
36%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
33%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-8.54
-15.98
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-39
Sack EPA
--
-16.17
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
104
71
Penalty EPA
-9.52
-9.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model75.3%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.3%
Cover Probability
58.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-231
Home nfelo
1,389
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
-21.0
Base HFA
+51.5
Divisional Adj
-23.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-40.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-9.2
Net QB Adjustment
-37.1
Home QB Adjustment
-18.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.4
Market Regression
+4.9
Final Difference
-193.5
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
Value
Ptile
12/30
6.0
84
01/05
2.8
69
01/12
3.8
74
09/08
13.4
99
09/15
10.4
97
09/22
1.1
61
09/29
-1.1
45
10/06
2.2
67
10/13
3.3
73
10/20
1.6
65
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-18.7
Value
Ptile
09/22
6.1
87
09/29
0.2
54
10/06
-5.8
16
10/10
-6.9
12
10/20
-8.4
7
10/27
6.1
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Giants Defense
Cowboys logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20

EPA

EPA / Play
3
24
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
3
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
13
Interceptions / Game
14
25
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
20
4th Down Efficiency
20
24
RZ Efficiency
16
17
Giants Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Giants logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
18
9
Yards / Game
23
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
22
Rushing Yards / Game
19
10

EPA

EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
27
10
EPA / Rush
11
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
31
Interceptions / Game
25
30
Fumbles / Game
32
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
3
4th Down Efficiency
18
12
RZ Efficiency
17
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
1
W
W
O
01/05
2
W
L
O
01/12
-8
L
L
O
09/08
18
W
W
O
09/15
10
W
W
O
09/22
25
W
W
U
09/29
-2
L
L
U
10/06
-10
L
L
O
10/13
-2
L
L
O
10/20
27
W
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-1
L
W
O
12/30
-1
L
L
O
09/08
-18
L
L
O
09/15
-14
L
L
U
09/22
1
W
W
O
09/29
21
W
W
U
10/06
-18
L
L
U
10/10
-21
L
L
O
10/20
-6
L
L
U
10/27
-5
L
W
O