DALCowboys
7-3
31
TBD
MetLife Stadium
51°F
2 mph
28
NYGGiants
3-7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
51°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
7
14
7
31
Giants
7
14
0
7
28
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
417
Total Plays
53
74
Yards / Play
7.3
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.13
Passing Yards
266
328
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
29/40(73%)
Yards / Pass
10.2
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.55
+0.37
Rushing Yards
119
89
Rush Attempts
25
32
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
27
Passing 1st downs
13
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
4
11
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-1.93
-6.71
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-10
Sack EPA
-2.66
-0.90
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
63
30
Penalty EPA
-7.93
-2.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-165
Home nfelo
1,404
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
-25.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.5
Away QB Adjustment
+19.2
Market Regression
-7.7
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
9
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
31
Rushing Yards / Game
2
30
EPA
EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
8
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
23
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
27
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
9
RZ Efficiency
3
8
Giants Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
15
Yards / Game
11
21
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8
EPA
EPA / Play
16
21
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
26
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
15
12
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
29
4th Down Efficiency
31
18
RZ Efficiency
8
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U