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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ giants week 17, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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DAL logo
DALCowboys
9-6
36
TBD
MetLife Stadium
37°F
2 mph
35
NYGGiants
5-10
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
37°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
14
7
15
36
Giants
0
7
11
17
35

Spread

DAL logo
+7

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
421
443
Total Plays
70
68
Yards / Play
6.0
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.17
Passing Yards
368
300
Comp/Att
27/44(61%)
24/42(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.45
+0.10
Rushing Yards
51
143
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
2.3
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
23
20
Passing 1st downs
18
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
65%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
11
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.49
-10.34
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-19
-3
Sack EPA
-4.96
-5.25
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
46
78
Penalty EPA
-1.96
-9.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model63.3%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+15.6%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-45
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+42.6
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-3.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+5.0
Market Regression
+29.5
Final Difference
94.6
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Value
Ptile
10/14
6.8
88
10/21
2.6
67
11/05
-2.5
31
11/11
1.7
60
11/18
-1.3
37
11/22
4.5
77
11/29
-1.4
36
12/09
7.0
90
12/16
-5.8
14
12/23
1.7
59
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Value
Ptile
10/11
-6.4
11
10/22
2.1
63
10/28
-6.7
11
11/12
2.2
64
11/18
-0.4
43
11/25
-0.1
45
12/02
-5.4
16
12/09
1.3
56
12/16
-7.9
9
12/23
5.9
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Giants Defense
Cowboys logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
21
23
Yards / Game
22
24
Passing Yards / Game
15
18
Rushing Yards / Game
10
21

EPA

EPA / Play
19
28
EPA / Pass
17
26
EPA / Rush
7
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
10
Interceptions / Game
4
7
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
26
13
Giants Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Giants logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
16
Rushing Yards / Game
24
8

EPA

EPA / Play
13
12
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
11
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
7
Interceptions / Game
14
27
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
22
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
16
RZ Efficiency
29
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
33
W
W
O
10/21
-3
L
L
U
11/05
-14
L
L
O
11/11
7
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
W
U
11/22
8
W
W
O
11/29
3
W
W
U
12/09
6
W
W
O
12/16
-23
L
L
U
12/23
7
W
P
U
NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-21
L
L
O
10/22
-3
L
W
U
10/28
-7
L
L
U
11/12
4
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
P
O
11/25
-3
L
W
U
12/02
3
W
W
O
12/09
24
W
W
O
12/16
-17
L
L
U
12/23
-1
L
W
O