DALCowboys
6-3
31
TBD
Wembley Stadium
50°F
3 mph
17
JAXJaguars
1-8
TBD
Wembley Stadium
50°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
10
14
7
0
31
Jaguars
7
0
0
8
15
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
399
335
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
6.8
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.07
Passing Yards
248
264
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.01
Rushing Yards
151
71
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
31%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
+3.85
-7.69
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-28
Sack EPA
-1.60
-6.32
Penalties
9
2
Penalty Yards
65
--
Penalty EPA
-2.37
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-175
Home nfelo
1,296
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+33.0
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+17.1
Home QB Adjustment
+30.6
Away QB Adjustment
+13.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.5
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+30.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
26
Yards / Game
9
26
Passing Yards / Game
15
29
Rushing Yards / Game
2
27
EPA
EPA / Play
2
22
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
8
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
1
Interceptions / Game
3
30
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
23
4th Down Efficiency
8
9
RZ Efficiency
3
9
Jaguars Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
15
Yards / Game
31
21
Passing Yards / Game
21
18
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8
EPA
EPA / Play
31
21
EPA / Pass
32
19
EPA / Rush
16
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
26
12
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
29
4th Down Efficiency
25
18
RZ Efficiency
31
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Jaguars
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U