DALCowboys
10-3
34
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
54°F
9 mph
40
JAXJaguars
5-8
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
54°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
14
6
7
34
Jaguars
0
7
17
10
34
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
503
Total Plays
74
70
Yards / Play
5.4
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.13
Passing Yards
243
311
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.25
Rushing Yards
154
192
Rush Attempts
41
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
7.1
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
26
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
56%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
9
8
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-10.75
-14.03
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-13
-7
Sack EPA
-3.82
-1.64
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
18
37
Penalty EPA
-1.58
-0.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-115
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,617
Home Field
+62.4
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+14.4
Home QB Adjustment
+28.8
Away QB Adjustment
+14.4
Market Regression
+30.3
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+28.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
10
24
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
9
12
EPA
EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
9
20
EPA / Rush
12
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
28
Interceptions / Game
30
18
Fumbles / Game
3
3
Turnover EPA / Game
20
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
29
4th Down Efficiency
5
1
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Jaguars Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
6
Yards / Game
7
13
Passing Yards / Game
29
15
Rushing Yards / Game
14
22
EPA
EPA / Play
7
3
EPA / Pass
7
4
EPA / Rush
14
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
29
Interceptions / Game
13
10
Fumbles / Game
30
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
17
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U