DALCowboys
-
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
6 mph
27
NYJJets
-
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
3
7
7
24
Jets
0
7
3
11
21
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
360
Total Plays
66
64
Yards / Play
5.9
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.06
Passing Yards
326
315
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
26/44(59%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.03
Rushing Yards
64
45
Rush Attempts
26
16
Yards / Rush
2.5
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
18
18
Rushing 1st downs
3
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-8.51
-12.83
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-16
-20
Sack EPA
-8.37
-8.35
Penalties
7
--
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-2.38
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,624
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+11.9
Market Regression
+39.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
19
Yards / Game
10
4
Passing Yards / Game
7
7
Rushing Yards / Game
17
14
EPA
EPA / Play
11
8
EPA / Pass
6
4
EPA / Rush
22
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
7
9
Fumbles / Game
17
2
Turnover EPA / Game
24
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
2
4th Down Efficiency
9
1
RZ Efficiency
19
9
Jets Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
15
Yards / Game
26
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
22
6
EPA
EPA / Play
21
17
EPA / Pass
25
18
EPA / Rush
13
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
23
18
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
22
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
9-1
O/U
Jets
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U