DALCowboys
1-2
37
TBD
MetLife Stadium
82°F
3 mph
22
NYJJets
0-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
82°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
20
7
7
37
Jets
3
0
3
16
22
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
416
382
Total Plays
59
75
Yards / Play
7.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.36
+0.03
Passing Yards
236
238
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
32/48(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.08
Rushing Yards
180
144
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
6.2
6.5
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
46%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.13
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-1
-49
Sack EPA
-0.79
-7.97
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
91
61
Penalty EPA
-2.91
-5.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+46.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-11.2
Home QB Adjustment
+9.7
Away QB Adjustment
+20.9
Market Regression
+50.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+20.9
J. Fields
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
27
Yards / Game
3
20
Passing Yards / Game
9
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
23
EPA
EPA / Play
3
28
EPA / Pass
8
27
EPA / Rush
8
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
22
32
Fumbles / Game
15
30
Turnover EPA / Game
18
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
29
RZ Efficiency
13
13
Jets Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
29
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
23
Rushing Yards / Game
4
28
EPA
EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
27
30
EPA / Rush
20
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
6
26
Fumbles / Game
29
24
Turnover EPA / Game
12
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
32
4th Down Efficiency
20
5
RZ Efficiency
23
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U