DALCowboys
1-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
0NYJJets
0-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
0Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-2
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+45.6
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-11.2
Home QB Adjustment
+9.7
Away QB Adjustment
+20.9
Market Regression
+7.4
Final Difference
-29.1
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.9
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+9.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
28
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
6
10
Rushing Yards / Game
12
25
EPA
EPA / Play
4
30
EPA / Pass
6
30
EPA / Rush
9
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
24
30
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
8
13
Jets Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
31
Yards / Game
21
32
Passing Yards / Game
23
26
Rushing Yards / Game
3
20
EPA
EPA / Play
16
32
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
23
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
24
Interceptions / Game
2
24
Fumbles / Game
32
16
Turnover EPA / Game
3
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
32
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
17
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U