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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ lions week 8, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
4-3
30
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
31
DETLions
4-3
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
10
3
17
30
Lions
7
0
0
24
31

Spread

DAL logo
+3

Total

OVER
51

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
268
623
Total Plays
56
78
Yards / Play
4.8
8.0
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
480
Comp/Att
14/30(47%)
33/48(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
10.0
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.02
Rushing Yards
62
143
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
13
29
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
23%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-23.24
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.19
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
31
61
Penalty EPA
-1.76
-10.49

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.3
Home QB Adjustment
+14.5
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Value
Ptile
12/16
8.3
93
12/23
8.7
94
12/30
-6.0
13
09/08
2.8
69
09/15
3.3
72
09/22
4.4
80
09/29
2.9
70
10/06
11.8
98
10/13
-3.1
30
10/20
-3.2
29
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.5
Value
Ptile
12/16
-7.9
6
12/22
6.0
87
12/30
3.9
75
09/08
4.4
80
09/15
5.4
84
09/22
3.7
75
09/29
2.6
68
10/06
-2.8
34
10/13
4.2
79
10/20
7.9
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Cowboys logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
5
14
Yards / Game
17
16
Passing Yards / Game
17
24
Rushing Yards / Game
25
6

EPA

EPA / Play
6
12
EPA / Pass
11
19
EPA / Rush
3
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
9
16
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
25
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
1
4th Down Efficiency
5
30
RZ Efficiency
3
1
Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Lions logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
12
26
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
16
25
Rushing Yards / Game
17
26

EPA

EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
25
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
20
16
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
2
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
29
4th Down Efficiency
25
19
RZ Efficiency
4
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
3
W
W
O
12/23
-3
L
L
O
12/30
-10
L
L
U
09/08
5
W
W
O
09/15
-1
L
W
U
09/22
24
W
W
U
09/29
-9
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
W
O
10/13
15
W
W
U
10/20
14
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
-28
L
L
O
12/22
-13
L
L
U
12/30
-2
L
W
O
09/08
10
W
W
O
09/15
-4
L
L
U
09/22
7
W
W
U
09/29
8
W
W
O
10/06
-13
L
L
U
10/13
14
W
W
O
10/20
-3
L
L
O