DALCowboys
4-3
30
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
031
DETLions
4-3
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
10
3
17
30
Lions
7
0
0
24
31
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
623
Total Plays
56
78
Yards / Play
4.8
8.0
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
480
Comp/Att
14/30(47%)
33/48(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
10.0
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.02
Rushing Yards
62
143
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
29
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
23%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-23.24
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.19
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
31
61
Penalty EPA
-1.76
-10.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.3
Home QB Adjustment
+14.5
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
14
Yards / Game
17
16
Passing Yards / Game
17
24
Rushing Yards / Game
25
6
EPA
EPA / Play
6
12
EPA / Pass
11
19
EPA / Rush
3
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
9
16
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
25
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
1
4th Down Efficiency
5
30
RZ Efficiency
3
1
Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
26
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
16
25
Rushing Yards / Game
17
26
EPA
EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
25
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
20
16
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
2
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
29
4th Down Efficiency
25
19
RZ Efficiency
4
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U