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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ lions week 11, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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How nfelo works

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  • Games
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    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
5-4
35
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
27
DETLions
3-5
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
21
3
8
35
Lions
7
7
7
6
27

Spread

DAL logo
-7

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
511
312
Total Plays
72
58
Yards / Play
7.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.06
Passing Yards
434
191
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.17
Rushing Yards
77
121
Rush Attempts
25
28
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
26
19
Passing 1st downs
21
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
57%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.86
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-18
Sack EPA
-2.15
-3.53
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
45
89
Penalty EPA
-9.18
-7.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-176
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+60.3
Base HFA
+51.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.2
Net QB Adjustment
-153.4
Home QB Adjustment
-130.3
Away QB Adjustment
+23.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
Value
Ptile
01/12
3.8
74
09/08
13.4
99
09/15
10.4
97
09/22
1.1
61
09/29
-1.1
45
10/06
2.2
67
10/13
3.3
73
10/20
1.6
65
11/04
3.3
73
11/10
6.5
89
J. Driskel headshot

J. Driskel

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-130.3
Value
Ptile
12/02
-3.4
25
12/09
-1.3
37
12/16
-7.0
10
12/23
-1.5
36
12/30
-8.5
7
11/10
0.9
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Cowboys logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
6
26
Yards / Game
1
31
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21

EPA

EPA / Play
3
23
EPA / Pass
3
26
EPA / Rush
3
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
13
Interceptions / Game
14
30
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
14
RZ Efficiency
16
18
Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Lions logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
18
9
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
12
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
10

EPA

EPA / Play
21
12
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
27
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
10
12
Turnover EPA / Game
14
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
3
4th Down Efficiency
24
12
RZ Efficiency
12
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/12
-8
L
L
O
09/08
18
W
W
O
09/15
10
W
W
O
09/22
25
W
W
U
09/29
-2
L
L
U
10/06
-10
L
L
O
10/13
-2
L
L
O
10/20
27
W
W
U
11/04
19
W
W
O
11/10
-4
L
L
O
DET logo

Lions

4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
31
W
W
U
09/08
0
T
L
O
09/15
3
W
W
U
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
-4
L
W
O
10/14
-1
L
W
U
10/20
-12
L
L
O
10/27
5
W
L
O
11/03
-7
L
L
O
11/10
-7
L
L
U