DALCowboys
5-4
35
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
027
DETLions
3-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
21
3
8
35
Lions
7
7
7
6
27
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
511
312
Total Plays
72
58
Yards / Play
7.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.06
Passing Yards
434
191
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.17
Rushing Yards
77
121
Rush Attempts
25
28
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
19
Passing 1st downs
21
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
57%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.86
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-18
Sack EPA
-2.15
-3.53
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
45
89
Penalty EPA
-9.18
-7.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-177
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+59.3
Base HFA
+50.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.0
Net QB Adjustment
-153.4
Home QB Adjustment
-130.3
Away QB Adjustment
+23.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
J. Driskel
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-130.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
26
Yards / Game
1
31
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21
EPA
EPA / Play
3
23
EPA / Pass
3
26
EPA / Rush
3
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
13
Interceptions / Game
14
30
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
14
RZ Efficiency
16
18
Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
9
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
12
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
10
EPA
EPA / Play
21
12
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
27
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
10
12
Turnover EPA / Game
14
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
3
4th Down Efficiency
24
12
RZ Efficiency
12
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Lions
4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U