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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ lions week 14, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
6-5
30
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
44
DETLions
7-5
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
6
10
11
30
Lions
10
10
7
17
44

Spread

DET logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
55.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
419
408
Total Plays
77
57
Yards / Play
5.4
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.32
Passing Yards
328
299
Comp/Att
31/48(65%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.36
Rushing Yards
91
109
Rush Attempts
24
22
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.28
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
17
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
33%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.25
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-50
-10
Sack EPA
-9.00
-1.77
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
76
50
Penalty EPA
-9.14
-5.60

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model63.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,621
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+36.5
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.0
Net QB Adjustment
-23.5
Home QB Adjustment
+0.8
Away QB Adjustment
+24.3
Market Regression
+6.9
Final Difference
97.4
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
Value
Ptile
09/21
-1.1
41
09/28
11.2
99
10/05
6.6
91
10/12
6.9
92
10/19
5.0
84
10/26
-4.3
22
11/03
-3.9
24
11/17
6.7
91
11/23
6.6
91
11/27
4.3
78
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Value
Ptile
09/22
2.2
66
09/28
-0.3
48
10/05
2.1
65
10/12
4.6
81
10/20
-4.5
21
11/02
0.0
51
11/09
8.5
95
11/16
-5.1
16
11/23
-0.7
45
11/27
4.3
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Lions Defense
Cowboys logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
4
23
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
3
21
Rushing Yards / Game
9
16

EPA

EPA / Play
1
12
EPA / Pass
5
14
EPA / Rush
16
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
16
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
23
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
11
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
17
21
Lions Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Lions logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
3
32
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
14
18
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20

EPA

EPA / Play
8
32
EPA / Pass
6
30
EPA / Rush
25
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
22
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
15
22
RZ Efficiency
5
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

5-4-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-17
L
L
U
09/28
0
T
W
O
10/05
15
W
W
O
10/12
-3
L
L
O
10/19
22
W
W
O
10/26
-20
L
L
O
11/03
-10
L
L
U
11/17
17
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
W
U
11/27
3
W
W
O
DET logo

Lions

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
8
W
W
O
09/28
24
W
W
U
10/05
13
W
W
O
10/12
-13
L
L
U
10/20
15
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
O
11/09
22
W
W
O
11/16
-7
L
L
U
11/23
7
W
L
O
11/27
-7
L
L
O