DALCowboys
4-1
30
TBD
Lambeau Field
69°F
8 mph
16
GBPackers
3-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
69°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
10
3
10
30
Packers
3
3
0
10
16
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
372
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
6.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.13
Passing Yards
233
294
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
31/42(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.04
Rushing Yards
191
78
Rush Attempts
33
24
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.55
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
14
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
27%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-8.42
-17.71
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-6.71
-0.34
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-5.14
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+77.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.1
Home QB Adjustment
-3.9
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
+18.6
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
25
Yards / Game
5
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10
EPA
EPA / Play
4
31
EPA / Pass
4
28
EPA / Rush
2
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
11
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
21
22
Turnover EPA / Game
24
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
24
RZ Efficiency
6
27
Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
7
16
Passing Yards / Game
6
26
Rushing Yards / Game
22
1
EPA
EPA / Play
3
15
EPA / Pass
3
20
EPA / Rush
8
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
24
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
12
14
Turnover EPA / Game
28
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
19
23
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U