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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ packers week 9, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DAL logo
DALCowboys
1-6
7
TBD
Lambeau Field
43°F
3 mph
45
GBPackers
5-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
43°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
7
0
0
7
Packers
0
22
7
4
33

Spread

GB logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
205
415
Total Plays
48
71
Yards / Play
4.3
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.33
Passing Yards
166
277
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
27/35(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.48
Rushing Yards
39
138
Rush Attempts
14
35
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
12
26
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
40%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-20.91
+5.54
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-17
-12
Sack EPA
-7.05
-3.40
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
40
20
Penalty EPA
-2.39
-2.03

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model77.8%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers-7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+253
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+101.0
Home QB Adjustment
-7.4
Away QB Adjustment
-108.4
Market Regression
-1.0
Final Difference
217.8
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

J. Kitna headshot

J. Kitna

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-108.4
Value
Ptile
12/02
2.4
67
12/09
2.2
66
12/16
-1.9
36
12/23
-5.6
15
12/30
-2.6
34
09/07
2.3
68
09/14
-6.0
11
09/21
-5.6
12
10/05
-6.2
9
10/31
-1.8
38
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
Value
Ptile
01/03
8.5
93
01/10
9.8
96
09/12
-3.5
26
09/19
9.6
97
09/27
9.5
96
10/03
-0.4
47
10/10
-0.7
45
10/17
-0.4
46
10/24
3.0
70
10/31
-4.7
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Cowboys logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
1
Yards / Game
8
5
Passing Yards / Game
21
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
12

EPA

EPA / Play
18
4
EPA / Pass
15
1
EPA / Rush
8
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
14
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
8
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
9
4th Down Efficiency
9
4
RZ Efficiency
8
14
Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Packers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
7
31
Yards / Game
9
23
Passing Yards / Game
7
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
11

EPA

EPA / Play
4
26
EPA / Pass
3
27
EPA / Rush
11
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
27
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
4
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
24
W
W
U
01/09
20
W
W
O
01/17
-31
L
L
U
09/12
-6
L
L
U
09/19
-7
L
L
O
09/26
14
W
W
U
10/10
-7
L
L
O
10/17
-3
L
L
O
10/25
-6
L
L
O
10/31
-18
L
L
O
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
26
W
W
U
01/10
-6
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
27
W
W
U
09/27
-3
L
L
U
10/03
2
W
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/17
-3
L
L
U
10/24
4
W
W
O
10/31
9
W
W
U