DALCowboys
1-6
7
TBD
Lambeau Field
43°F
3 mph
45
GBPackers
5-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
43°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
7
0
0
7
Packers
0
22
7
4
33
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
205
415
Total Plays
48
71
Yards / Play
4.3
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.33
Passing Yards
166
277
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
27/35(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.48
Rushing Yards
39
138
Rush Attempts
14
35
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
26
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
40%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-20.91
+5.54
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-17
-12
Sack EPA
-7.05
-3.40
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
40
20
Penalty EPA
-2.39
-2.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model77.5%
Spread Pick
Packers-7.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+247
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+101.0
Home QB Adjustment
-7.4
Away QB Adjustment
-108.4
Market Regression
-1.7
Final Difference
214.5
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
J. Kitna
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-108.4
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
1
Yards / Game
8
5
Passing Yards / Game
21
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
12
EPA
EPA / Play
18
4
EPA / Pass
15
1
EPA / Rush
8
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
14
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
8
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
9
4th Down Efficiency
9
4
RZ Efficiency
8
14
Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
31
Yards / Game
9
23
Passing Yards / Game
7
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
11
EPA
EPA / Play
4
26
EPA / Pass
3
27
EPA / Rush
11
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
27
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
4
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U